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HomeStrategiesValue Betting

Value Betting in CS2

Find profitable betting opportunities

Intermediate
10 min read

In This Guide

  • 1. What is Value Betting?
  • 2. Calculating Expected Value
  • 3. Finding Market Inefficiencies
  • 4. Line Shopping
  • 5. Tracking and Verification
  • Key Takeaways
  • Common Mistakes

What is Value Betting?

Value betting means placing bets where the implied probability of the odds is lower than your estimated true probability. If you believe Team A has a 60% chance to win but odds imply 50%, that's a value bet. Long-term profitability comes from consistently finding and betting these edges.

Calculating Expected Value

Expected Value (EV) = (Probability of Win × Potential Profit) - (Probability of Loss × Stake). A positive EV bet will be profitable over many repetitions. Example: If odds are 2.20 (+120) and you believe win probability is 50%, EV = (0.50 × 1.20) - (0.50 × 1.00) = +0.10 or +10% EV.

Pro Tips
  • Convert odds to implied probability first
  • Estimate true probability from your research
  • Only bet when you find genuine edge
  • Track your estimated vs actual results

Finding Market Inefficiencies

Value often exists in: matches with recent roster changes not yet reflected in odds, teams with strong map-specific records, local/regional matches with less market attention, and underdogs against inconsistent favorites. The key is having information or analysis the market undervalues.

Line Shopping

Different bookmakers offer different odds on the same matches. Comparing lines across multiple sites and betting at the best available odds significantly improves long-term returns. Even small odds differences compound over hundreds of bets.

Pro Tips
  • Use odds comparison sites for every bet
  • Maintain accounts at 3-5 bookmakers minimum
  • Best odds often appear at smaller books
  • Sharp money moves lines—watch for movements

Tracking and Verification

Value betting requires discipline and tracking. Record every bet with your estimated probability, the odds taken, and results. Over time, if your estimated probabilities are accurate, your actual results should match expectations. This feedback loop improves your probability estimation.

Key Takeaways

  • Value = betting when true probability exceeds implied odds
  • Calculate EV before placing any bet
  • Market inefficiencies exist in less-followed matches
  • Line shop across multiple bookmakers
  • Track and verify your probability estimates

Common Mistakes to Avoid

  • Confusing 'I like this team' with genuine edge
  • Betting favorites simply because they're favorites
  • Not tracking bets to verify probability accuracy
  • Using single bookmaker instead of shopping lines

Continue Learning

Bankroll Management

Beginner • 8 min read

Live Betting Tactics

Intermediate • 12 min read

Map Betting Analysis

Advanced • 15 min read

Handicap Betting

Intermediate • 10 min read

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