Is a huge upset champion possible in the CS2 Budapest Major?
Absolutely — there is a real chance for a huge upset at the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025, not just from one underdog but multiple teams (MOUZ, NAVI, FaZe, The MongolZ), backed by how this Major has already unfolded and current form data.
We count FURIA, Vitality, Falcons and Spirit to be the biggest favorites.
Our analytical framework from the CS2Bet.io Editors have identified three reasons for an upset in these playoffs.
1) The Tournament Is Exceptionally Competitive
This playoffs field is historically well ranked and tight: every playoff team is ranked within the HLTV top 12 — the closest grouping ever at a Major. That means there’s no easy path for favorites, and bracket volatility is higher than usual.
2) Underdogs Have Already Struck at Budapest
Early stages have delivered genuine surprise results:
* Falcons already fell to B8 at 3.84 underdog odds.
* FaZe Clan upset Vitality 13–7 as underdogs at Stage 3.
* Other teams like NRG have stunned NiP and FaZe in earlier rounds. This shows even established names can be toppled when one team simply executes better on the day.
3) Year of Shocking Title Winners
We have had already three champions this year in the Tier-1 tournament that could be considered as shocks. The MongolZ winning the Esports World Cup (EWC), G2 Esports at BLAST Open Fall, and FURIA’ Breakthrough Shock at FISSURE Playground #2. Many times the crazy underdog runs are hard to stop, and that offers us a great outright value.
Team-Specific Upset Scenarios
🟡 MOUZ — Dark Horse With History
MOUZ is not a true “random” underdog — they’re structurally sound and have historically taken maps and series off big names. In more balanced matchups (e.g., vs FaZe), Strafe analytics even show community belief in MOUZ winning (~65% in one preview). Strafe Esports
Even outside this Major, MOUZ have beaten FaZe 2–0 in past events with impressive individual rating spikes from players like xertioN and Spinx — showing they can decisively outplay top squads on the right day. Reddit
🔵 NAVI — If Their Stars Align
NAVI’s path is harder but not out of reach. They’ve had peak performances this season from players like w0nderful and iM, and if they build momentum during playoffs, their tactical depth and explosive individual firepower could overcome chalk lines — especially if favorites slip. NAVI have also shown they can reset and adapt after roster changes, giving them latent upset potential in longer series (especially BO5 finals).
aleksiB has never rarely won from the favorite spot. All his wins have come as a surprise. At ENCE they reached final in a Miracle run IEM Katovice 2019 ENCE went 0-2 in the Swiss stage after tough losses to Renegades and HellRaisers. The roster was completed by sergej, xseveN, allu and Aerial. Also the NaVi’s win in the first CS2 Major Copenhagen 2024 was pretty much a fairytale run. They hadn’t played great coming to the tournament. This seems like the same situation. You don’t expect so much of them, but if aleksiB gets going, everything is possible.
🔴 FaZe — The “Sleeping Giant” Upset Potential
People have predicted FaZe to bomb out early — but that’s oversimplified. FaZe already upset Vitality (a top seed) decisively at 13–7 at this Major, proving they can compete with elite squads when they find rhythm.
Their volatility is both a risk and an opportunity: when FaZe click, they can end favorites’ runs early, which means they’re a real upset candidate in any high-variance matchup. Karrigan has the winning blood in his veins.
🟠 The MongolZ — Hot ‘Wildcard’ Upset Machine
The MongolZ epitomize upset potential: they’ve already beaten teams like FaZe and Liquid this Major, including an impressive 2–0 over G2 in Swiss. They have been a lot better with controlez than expected.
Their aggression and unpredictability are nightmare scenarios for disciplined foes who rely on defaults and mid-round reads — especially early in BO3s.
Why Now Is the Best Time for an Upset?
1. The Exhaustion Factor: Best Teams Are Getting Tired and Calculated
The competitive season is a brutal grind, and by the time the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025 playoffs arrive in December, the cumulative fatigue hits the most successful teams hardest.
* Tired Stars: Teams like Spirit (relying heavily on donk) and Vitality (a heavy favorite for much of 2025) risk mental and physical exhaustion. Their star players, who carry the immense burden of winning, are the most susceptible to a momentary dip in form. Nowadays the CS2 Seasons are super long, and feel even longer if you are playing in the finals from event to event.
* FURIA (The Map Count Burden): As the team that dominated the Fall season, FURIA has simply played the most high-level, high-stakes series. They are carrying the massive pressure of the #1 seed and the physical toll of months of travel, making them a prime candidate for a day where the perfect shot just doesn't connect.
* Falcons (The Mental Gauntlet): While they possess supreme individual talent, Falcons had a turbulent run to the playoffs, including the shock loss to B8. They were forced to fight through multiple elimination matches, playing more high-pressure BO3s than their peers. This kind of mental strain compounds quickly, making them vulnerable to early collapse if the series starts poorly.
* Calculated = Predictable: The best teams are also the most calculated. Their defaults, rotations, and economic risks are perfectly structured. Underdogs like The MongolZ and FaZe thrive on breaking those calculated patterns with pure aggression and improvisation. The favorites lose a single round, and their perfectly tuned system can break down under pressure.
2. Playoff Pressure & Map Veto Can Flip Values
In a highly volatile, close-gap meta, the series format and the psychological factor of the crowd can swing a result more than raw skill.
* The Power of the Map Veto: The BO3 veto process is a strategic weapon that equalizes the playing field. The underdog can ban the favorite's best map, forcing them onto a less comfortable map where the win rates are closer to 50/50.
* The Pressure Cooker: The teams that had to fight through the 3-2 bracket (like FaZe, who had the "roughest journey") are already warmed up and pressure-tested by elimination games, giving them a vital mental edge over favorites who may have cruised.
3. The Foundation of Champions: Underdogs Led by Winning IGLs
The most compelling reason to believe in a massive upset is that these four teams are not traditional underdogs. They are all recent champions led by some of the most successful In-Game Leaders (IGLs) and Core-Players in the game's history. (Frozen, 910, b1t, and torszi.
This means they do not suffer from the usual underdog flaws — lack of experience, poor preparation, or collapsing under Grand Final pressure
Summary — How Crazy Could It Get?
Yes — a Major upset is entirely possible, and not just a one-off. The teams with real upset viability include:
👉 MOUZ — structurally sound and capable of taking entire series off majors.
NAVI — if their stars align, they can erase chalk edges.
FaZe — proven they can dismantle favorites already at this event.
The MongolZ — pure volatility plays with proven wins against elite squads.
All of this combines to make Budapest 2025 one of the most open Major playoffs in CS2 history — chaos fueled by both data and real performances so far.
Stay tuned for more CS2 Betting picks, and join in the winning side.